58 Percent Chance Republicans Take The House

At least that is the going bet.  Up 20% in the last 6 months.

Intrade.com an online betting site where you can bet on just about any question you want has been trading on Republican House Majority “futures”.

You can “bet” between 1 and 100 $ that a particular event will happen.  The dollar amount also represents the percent chance that event will take place.

For example I bet $25 early in the last primary season that McCain would be elected President.  I lost.

Other events being bought and sold include what Ocean Temperature will be recorded on a particular date.  This event is worded such that it is gaging the markets belief in Global Warming.  Sorry Al the big inside money says you are wrong.

Intrade taps in to the market wisdom and hence the best knowledge possible and lets people trade on their knowledge, even GASP insider knowledge!  But we get a glimpse of what the insider money is betting.  Pretty good trade off, THAT is what open markets can do for you.

You may remember Admiral Poindexter using such on online trading system to gage the possibilty of America coming under another terrorist attack.  He was attacked for “betting against” America and the experiment was withdrawn.  However the concept was and is strong.

Trading systems such as this taps in to market wisdom without the spin or hype.  It’s raw naked, kick in the shins market knowledge.

Used to be we Americans could participate in this with just a credit card, however when Trent Lott killed the Online Poker industry he also made participating in Intrade very difficult.  It is located in Ireland and you’ll need to send them a check to establish an account.  It’s even outside the reach of our new financial regulatory masters, so it’s really raw, naked, kick in the shins market knowledge.